It is a newspaper front page, dated Nov. 3, 1948, and it carries the immortal headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.” Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey was the clear Establishment pick from the start. Dewey Defeats Truman! From United States +C $76.39 shipping. Dewey Defeats Truman Newspaper collectibles for sale including the iconic paper from the thChicago Tribune 1948 in which they incorrectly predicted that Thomas Dewey would defeat Harry Truman in the presidential election. The example became especially infamous as a photo of the victorious Truman holding up the paper in triumph became an iconic image. The series of “Dewey Defeats Truman” photos has become an icon of tenacity, perseverance, self-confidence and success. Heading into Election Day on November 2, 1948, it seemed like Thomas Dewey had the U.S. presidency in the bag. Account & Lists Account Returns & Orders. Those 120 days proved as intense a trial by fire as any president has had. Baime is also the author of another great micro-history, “The Accidental President”, also about Harry Truman, and his first four months in office. The gun purchase data were the only reliable poll. Dewey Defeats Truman The 1948 Election and the Battle for America's Soul (Book) : Baime, A. J. : "From the New York Times best-selling author of The Accidental President comes the thrilling story of the 1948 presidential election, one of the greatest election stories of all time, as Truman mounted a history-making comeback and staked a claim for a new course for America." Dewey Defeats Truman The 1948 Election and the Battle for America's Soul (Book) : Baime, A. J. : "From the New York Times best-selling author of The Accidental President comes the thrilling story of the 1948 presidential election, one of the greatest election stories of all time, as Truman mounted a history-making comeback and staked a claim for a new course for America." DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN THE 1948 ELECTION AND THE BATTLE FOR AMERICA'S SOUL by A.J. An election postmortem of America’s leading pollsters concluded that the surveys “left relatively untouched important problems of campaign effort, turnout, state and local politics, and voting behavior as well as the more psychological problems of the formation of preferences, the relation of intention to actual behavior, and the more subtle processes of interviewing.” The pollsters oversampled college-educated voters, who heavily favored Dewey, and undersampled working-class voters, who heavily favored Truman. Racism was rampant, foreign relations were … In the Electoral College, Truman won 303–189. Click here to read the text of Truman’s 11/4/1948 remarks in St. Louis, Vincennes, Indiana and Cincinnati, Ohio. or Best Offer . The Chicago Tribune printed "Dewey Defeats Truman" in reference to this prediction on the front page of its November 3 edition (the day after the election). Truman held together the New Deal coalition of urban Catholic, Jewish and organized-labor voters, and integrated the Northern black vote as a new pillar of Democratic Party support. Sherman A1 (33,656 posts) 1. In the Electoral College, Truman won 303–189. But, as a now-famous photograph would show, everyoneincluding the editors of the Chicago Tribunegot it wrong. Contemporary political analyst Samuel Lubell concluded that “far from costing Dewey the election, the stay-at-homes may have saved him almost as crushing a defeat” as Republican nominee Alf Landon suffered in 1936, because higher Democratic turnout would have widened Truman’s margin of victory. Thursday, 17 December 2020 Share. 08/16/2008 03:48 pm ET Updated Dec 06, 2017 Just beyond the security desk at the Tribune Tower is a hallway of historic newspapers with famous headlines reading "NIXON RESIGNS," "MOON WALK COMPLETED," and "EUROPE'S WAR IS ON!" Top Rated Seller Top Rated Seller. Quotes delayed at least 15 minutes. Recent headlines proclaiming “RPA is dead” should remind us of that famously incorrect headline we learned about in grade school, "Dewey Defeats Truman.” It was published on the front page of the Chicago Daily Tribune on November 3, 1948, the day after incumbent President Harry S. Truman defeated Thomas E. Dewey, the then-governor of New York. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Behind the Picture: ‘Dewey Defeats Truman’ Harry Truman. He is the founder and managing director of Greenmantle LLC, a New York-based advisory firm. Free shipping and pickup in store on eligible orders. The 1948 presidential election was a bigger surprise than 2016, and has eerie parallels to 2020. Progressive Democrats, getting cold feet over Truman’s record on civil rights and the Cold War, defected with former Vice President Henry Wallace to form the Progressive Party, while Dixiecrats rallied around Senator Strom Thurmond and the States’ Rights Democratic Party. The Dewey Defeats Truman newspaper is arguably the most famous and sought after newspaper of all time. What was it that secured Truman’s victory and consigned the Chicago Daily Tribune’s headline writers to eternal obloquy? Review written by Steve Nathans-Kelly. All of this is not to predict that 2020 will be 1948 revisited. Dewey Defeats Truman: The Rarely Told Story of Chicago Tribune's Most Famous Issue. The Los Angeles Times called him “the most complete fumbler and blunderer this nation has seen in high office in a long time.” Alistair Cooke of the Manchester Guardian published an article on the day of the election entitled “Harry S. Truman: A Study of a Failure.”. In the months before the 1948 election, the polls gave the challenger comfortable margins of 5 to 15 points. Thomas Mallon's novel, "Dewey Defeats Truman", is a marvelous look at a small town in the throes of change. It was hard to understand what Dewey was driving at. In its final pre-election edition, Life magazine featured a glossy photo of Dewey and his staff with the caption, “Our Next President Rides by Ferryboat over San Francisco Bay.”, Newsweek surveyed 50 political experts on Oct. 11 and received unanimous confirmation that Dewey would win: “The landslide for Dewey will sweep the country.” Drew Pearson of the Washington Post “surveyed the closely-knit group around Tom Dewey who will take over the White House 86 days from now.”, As today, too, the press loathed the incumbent. Truman was politically finished — hence the pun: “To err is Truman.”. Numerous polls and pundits predicted a win for the Michigan native, New York governor and prominent gang-busting attorney. Did you know that Katharine Hepburn, Frank Lloyd Wright and Charlie Chaplin endorsed Wallace? Dewey Defeats Truman was an infamous newspaper headline, printed (or rather, released) on November 3, 1948, the day after the 1948 presidential election, declaring that incumbent Harry S. Truman lost to challenger Thomas E. Dewey (), then-governor of New York.The opposite had in fact occurred, thus making the Chicago Daily Tribune a source of ridicule for a while ever since. It is a newspaper front page, dated Nov. 3, 1948, and it carries the immortal headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.”Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey was the clear Establishment pick from the start. November 3, 2020 by Jason P. Tank, CFA. Second, Truman’s attacks on his opponent, his party and its institutional backers were direct, personal and visceral, earning him the censure of the press and “respectable” politicians alike who recoiled from his “ungentlemanly” methods. Dewey Defeats Truman: The 1948 Election and the Battle for America's Soul by A. J. Baime book review. Like Biden, Dewey ran a low-risk, low-profile campaign, assuming the inevitability of his victory, on the advice of his highly experienced campaign managers. The Progressive and Dixiecrat parties sliced off 5.5% of the popular vote and 7.5% of the electoral vote — a standout electoral performance for minor parties, but ultimately insufficient to swing the election. ‎ From the New York Times best-selling author of The Accidental President comes the thrilling story of the 1948 presidential election, one of the greatest election stories of all time, as Truman mounted a history-making comeback and staked a claim for a new course for America.… The pandemic he wished would miraculously go away is entering its third wave. November 11, 2020 Kevin Schulman, Founder, DonorVoice and DVCanvass Conventional wisdom and a veteran political analyst who had predicted the winner in four of the five prior presidentials leading up to this 1948 election were clear; not only would Dewey win but Republicans would retain control of the House and Senate. Market data provided by Interactive Data. In what is generally regarded as the greatest upset in American political history, Truman beat the heavily-favored Republican governor of New York, Thomas Dewey, by a substantial Electoral College margin, 303 to 189, but by fewer than three million votes in the popular vote. In Dewey Defeats Truman, A. J. Baime sheds light on one of the most action-packed six months in American history, as Truman not only triumphs, but oversees watershed events—the passing of the Marshall plan, the acknowledgement of Israel as a new state, the careful attention to the origins of the Cold War, and the first desegregation of the military. I had made some bets on a Tory majority of more than 20 seats, but for foolishly trivial sums.). President Truman was elected with a comfortable margin of 49.6 percent of the popular vote to Dewey’s 45.1 percent. But “Dewey Defeats Truman,” from the Chicago Daily Tribune, is perhaps the most memorable headline in American political history, and it is the … Only good fortune saved NBC’s mistake from being a “DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN” moment for the burgeoning television age. Click to read the full review of Dewey Defeats Truman: The 1948 Election and the Battle for America's Soul in New York Journal of Books. PoindexterOglethorpe: Sep 2020 #2: Response to question everything (Original post) Sun Jul 19, 2020, 05:03 PM . But revisiting 1948 provides a salutary reminder that even bigger upsets have happened in the history of American presidential elections than the one that elected Donald Trump president in 2016. ETF and Mutual Fund data provided by Morningstar, Inc. Dow Jones Terms & Conditions: http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/html/tandc/indexestandcs.html. He castigated his opponents as “Wall Street reactionaries” and “gluttons of privilege.” Finally, Truman directly attacked the pollsters. © 2020 Fortune Media IP Limited. From United States +C $11.46 shipping. The Detroit Free Press dismissed Harry S. Truman as “intellectually unqualified” to remain president. Like Trump, Truman had lost control of the House of Representatives two years previously. On Oct. 29, he told a roaring crowd in Queens to “throw the Galluping polls right into the ash can.”. On Sept. 9, pollster Elmo Roper announced that “Thomas E. Dewey is almost as good as elected … I can think of nothing duller or more intellectually barren than acting like a sports announcer who feels he must pretend he is witnessing a neck-and-neck race.” The Crossley Poll of Oct. 15 placed Dewey ahead in 27 states. A significant reason for Dewey’s complacency was that the pollsters gave Truman no chance. Dewey Defeats Truman: The 1948 Election and the Battle for America's Soul by Bai. The governor of New York since 1943, Dewey had unsuccessfully run for president twice before (failing to secure the Republican nomination in 1940, and losing to Franklin Roosevelt in 1944). (W. Eugene Smith / LIFE Picture Collection) SEE DETAILS Hey, didn’t Trump kick the virus’s butt and bounce back to the campaign trail? When the decision to print this paper was made, returns were coming in very slowly and time was running out before the deadline for the edition. Truman’s last-ditch effort to get out the vote mobilized infrequent Democratic voters and scooped up undecided voters and Republican defectors, since (as the pollsters’ postmortem ruefully noted) “about 1 voter in 7 made up his mind within the last two weeks and three fourths of them voted for Truman.”. Baime. (Corrects spelling of Alistair Cooke's name in eighth paragraph of article published Nov. 1), To contact the author of this story:Niall Ferguson at [email protected], To contact the editor responsible for this story:Tobin Harshaw at [email protected] “You are the government,” Truman told rapt audiences in cornfields and dusty rail towns. In his book “Out of the Jaws of Victory,” the journalist Jules Abels noted that Dewey’s pitch for unity was “an issue which had no visceral appeal to the average American. Dewey Defeats Truman! Brand New. The governor of New York since 1943, Dewey had unsuccessfully run for president twice before (failing to secure the Republican nomination in 1940, and losing to Franklin Roosevelt in 1944). Brother, can you spare a dime? America by 1946 were sick of the Democrats, who had held the US presidency since 1932. Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey was the clear Establishment pick from the start. Arguably the most famous headline in the newspaper’s 150-year history, DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN is every publisher’s nightmare on every election night. Dewey Defeats Truman (For Realz This Time!) In Dewey Defeats Truman, A. J. Baime sheds light on one of the most action-packed six months in American history, as Truman not only triumphs, but oversees watershed events - the passing of the Marshall plan, the acknowledgement of Israel as a new state, the careful attention to the origins of the Cold War, and the first desegregation of the military. Yes, as I argued here two weeks ago, I really can see the headline: “Biden Defeats Trump.” Gun to my head, I’d say the probability of a 2008-style blue wave is still roughly double that of a 1948-style upset. Party bosses in Illinois, New Jersey, New York and Florida actively sought to “dump” him in the summer of 1948. Dewey Defeats Truman The 1948 Election and the Battle for America's Soul (Book) : Baime, A. J. : "From the New York Times best-selling author of The Accidental President comes the thrilling story of the 1948 presidential election, one of the greatest election stories of all time, as Truman mounted a history-making comeback and staked a claim for a new course for America." As today, the mainstream media overwhelmingly favored the challenger. But 11% is not zero. The effective ground game of the Truman campaign was crucial in the final days of the race. He represented the moderate Eastern wing of his party, and in 1948 had fended off more ideologically right-wing primary challengers such as Senator Robert A. Taft of Ohio and General Douglas MacArthur. The obvious antecedent to Dewey Defeats Truman is Baime’s own The Accidental President (2017), which applies the author’s signature gift for gripping historical narrative to Truman’s tumultuous first four months in office following Franklin Roosevelt’s sudden death. Harry S Truman Signed Framed 1962 Letter & Dewey Defeats Photo Display JSA . Dewey’s inability to convert his “unity” platform into votes on Election Day is a cautionary tale for the Biden campaign. Racism was rampant, foreign relations were fraught, and political parties were more divided than ever. Since the election results were a complete shock to the media, the Chicago Daily Tribune got caught with the headline "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN." Photographer: Irving Haberman/IH Images/Getty Images, I can see the headline already: “Biden Defeats Trump.”. Click here to read the text of Truman’s 11/4/1948 remarks in St. Louis, Vincennes, Indiana and Cincinnati, Ohio. Ironically, this example is a downplay of the trope. ‘Dewey Defeats Truman’ Review: The Truman Show A month before the election, nine out of 10 U.S. newspapers endorsed Truman’s challenger. Not only did Truman win the election, he … Baime ‧ RELEASE DATE: June 2, 2020 An absorbing chronicle of the months leading up to the extraordinary 1948 presidential election. In Dewey Defeats Truman, A. J. Baime sheds light on one of the most action-packed six months in American history, as Truman not only triumphs, but oversees watershed events - the passing of the Marshall plan, the acknowledgement of Israel as a new state, the careful attention to the origins of the Cold War, and the first desegregation of the military. As I write this, it’s early morning just before the polls open. As one of Hoover’s assistants put it: “No one in the Bureau gave Truman any chance of winning.”. With that, forgive me for stepping just one day into the future! Like Biden, Dewey therefore entered the race as a known moderate with ample public-policy experience. It is a newspaper front page, dated Nov. 3, 1948, and it carries the immortal headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.” Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey was the clear Establishment pick from the start. Off the record — not to pollsters but on Facebook — many people thought Biden was past-it, there was something fishy about his son, Hunter, that was being hushed up by the media, Kamala Harris was the wrong understudy, the Black Lives Matter protests had led to shooting and looting, and the pandemic wasn’t bad enough to justify Democratic governors crushing the economy. But I can also see the despised underdog incumbent’s triumphant grin as he holds that erroneous front page aloft. Last week, in what the pundit Mark Halperin calls the “significant six” states — Florida, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas — Biden was ahead in just three, and his leads were within the margin of error. Racism was rampant, foreign relations were … Navalny Versus Putin Is an Epic, and Existential, Battle, What Navalny’s Arrest Says About the Kremlin, Don’t Let Chief Diversity Officer Be a Dead-End Job. It has never been wrong and I very much doubt that it will ever be.”, According to David McCullough's biography of Truman, the betting odds against the incumbent were 15 to 1 on average — in some places, 30 to 1. Baime is also the author of another great micro-history, “The Accidental President”, also about Harry Truman, and his first four months in office. “I’m calling this trip a crusade. A shift of a mere 29,000 votes of 10,661,000 cast (0.27%) in three critical states would have handed Dewey electoral victory. As Truman’s defeat was considered certain, nobody bothered to place any Democratic donkeys on the set. It is a newspaper front page, dated Nov. 3, 1948, and it carries the immortal headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.”Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey was the clear Establishment pick from the start. Dewey gained endorsements from almost every major newspaper in America. " Dewey Defeats Truman " was an incorrect banner headline on the front page of the Chicago Daily Tribune (later Chicago Tribune) on November 3, 1948, the day after incumbent United States President, Harry S. Truman, won an upset victory over Republican challenger and Governor of New York, Thomas E. Dewey, in the 1948 presidential election. On the eve of the 1948 election, America was a fractured country. Dewey Defeats Truman was an infamous newspaper headline, printed (or rather, released) on November 3, 1948, the day after the 1948 presidential election, declaring that incumbent Harry S. Truman lost to challenger Thomas E. Dewey (), then-governor of New York.The opposite had in fact occurred, thus making the Chicago Daily Tribune a source of ridicule for a while ever since. —– [Post-Election Update: I was wrong, especially in the national tone of the election’s outcome. Dewey Defeats Truman! According to RealClear Politics, Trump support was growing in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Ohio. Sometimes it seemed that he was asking Americans to achieve unity by being united behind him.”. DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN is arguably the most famous headline in the history of the Chicago Tribune newspaper and is every publisher’s nightmare on every election night. -- In Dewey Defeats Truman, A. J. Baime sheds light on one of the most action-packed six months in American history, as Truman not only triumphs, but oversees watershed events - the passing of the Marshall plan, the acknowledgement of Israel as a new state, the careful attention to the origins of the Cold War, and the first desegregation of the military. This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners. This historic newspaper is considered to be one of the greatest errors in media and newspaper history. How much do you worry about the coronavirus? At 10:14 a.m., Dewey conceded the election to Truman. Gallup’s final voter survey a fortnight before the election showed him ahead by just 6 points. In terms of the popular vote (49.5% to 45.1%), Truman’s 11th-hour upset was the closest result since 1916. Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. 11/02/2018 12:00 AM EDT. What's missing is Chicago Tribune's most famous newspaper and headline … Sherman A1: Jul 2020 #1: The mother of a friend of mine was a secretary. A shift of only 3,500 votes would have flipped Ohio to Dewey; of 9,000, California; of 16,500, Illinois. Truman’s wife, Bess, did not think Harry would win re-election. Indeed, the intraparty schism was worse for Truman than for Trump. When to expect Biden’s $1,400 stimulus check, China’s consumers are turning against the homegrown Big Tech giants they once revered, Business could be on the precipice of an automation explosion, CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice, http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/html/tandc/indexestandcs.html. -- Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell My Personal Information | Ad Choices  A New York Herald Tribune reporter scathingly characterized Truman’s campaign as “bunkum piled higher than haystacks, and demagoguery tooting merrily down the track.”, But people were listening. A jubilant Harry Truman held up a Chicago newspaper emblazoned with the (erroneous) headline, "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN," St. Louis, November 4, 1948. Buy the Paperback Book Dewey Defeats Truman by Thomas Mallon at Indigo.ca, Canada's largest bookstore. (I wasn’t around in 1948, but I vividly remember the stunned facial expressions of my left-leaning Oxford colleagues 28 years ago. On this day in 1948, in one of the least foreseen upsets in … Indie rock band from San Diego, CA Or that onetime farmer … On the eve of the 1948 election, America was a fractured country. Terms & Conditions. The genius math professor who ran Renaissance Technologies figured out how to reliably beat the market, but the rules still apply to everyone else. Americans were certain that President Harry S. Truman's political career was over. And if it happens, the postmortem will go like this. Truman came second in all nine of the Gallup Poll’s post-convention surveys. With just two days remaining before the final votes are cast, President Donald Trump’s obstacles to re-election look insurmountable. Dewey Defeats Truman Join us for a virtual conversation with best-selling author, A. J. Baime, to discuss his latest book, the thrilling story of the 1948 presidential election, during which Truman mounted a remarkable comeback and staked a claim for a new course for America. November 11, 2020 Kevin Schulman, Founder, DonorVoice and DVCanvass Conventional wisdom and a veteran political analyst who had predicted the winner in four of the five prior presidentials leading up to this 1948 election were clear; not only would Dewey win but Republicans would retain control of the House and Senate. Like Trump, Truman also confronted institutional “deep state” opposition. C $31.56. The GOP’s 1948 election postmortem highlighted — as for the Democrats in 2016 — the perils of ebullient polling: In the words of historian Simon Topping, “Predictions of a Dewey landslide may have actually deterred many Republicans from voting.” But turnout was low on the Democratic side, too. Remarkably, the three-way split in the Democratic base did not scupper Truman. 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